By Rumyana Vakarelska
The Tide is turning as major political developments in the UK and internationally unfold, making the week known as a ‘back to work, back to school’, one that requires greater than usual attention to detail.
Leaving aside the visible signs of Russian interests at the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast, in Bulgarian business and politics even in the country’s media coverage of Russia, the Bulgarian President Rossen Plevneliev and the Bulgarian defence minister Velizar Shalamanov have chosen these complex tasks as the key subjects of the paper they will deliver at the upcoming NATO Summit in the UK.
These developments are not anymore only the subject of high politics, as they effect the very way Bulgarian society functions. The visible gaps in that can be well noticed at all levels in society and are often a result of Russian interests in Bulgaria. The response to the paper delivered by the key members of the Bulgarian delegation will be symptomatic of how far Bulgaria can realistically go to clear a path that will lead somewhere better than getting duly scorned by the EC for South Stream this autumn among other defaults.
During the summer days before Bliznashki’s care-taker government came to power, the former Socialist-led coalition government managed to sell cheaply forest land near Varna in order to secure space for the pipeline construction, a pipeline whose legitimacy has already been questioned by the European Commission, by the Bulgarian public and of parts of the Bulgarian establishment. Meanwhile, controversial analyses of Bulgaria’s energy interests by Bulgarian media have continued to muddy key issues.
How much and how soon we can distance ourselves from Russia is now a key preoccupation, as most of the EU and NATO member countries are closely watching the impact of the political and military crisis between Russia and Ukraine and how it effects the Baltics and Bulgaria. Similarly to Poland, Bulgaria has asked in June for extra NATO troops to be stationed within its borders, which is one of the key tasks that will be discussed at the NATO Summit. Among the Baltic countries, Estonia has taken the most active role in formulating strategies for the EU countries most affected by Russia’s new efforts for greater influence in CEE.
The big question is if NATO’s decisions this week will trigger the badly needed political capacity building in Bulgaria that will continue beyond the mandate of Georgi Bliznashki’s caretaker government. Without an external push for Bulgaria’s defence sector and a defence strategy that will be co-ordinated with and supported by NATO this week, both Plevneliev and Shalamanov, will not progress the plea of limiting Russian interests and potential threats to the country.
‘Bulgaria – a high risk zone says new security report’
‘Bulgaria is in one of the zones with the highest concentration of risks and threats in the Euro-Atlantic community,’ a new governmental report has said, while Shalamanov is particularly concerned by the influence of Russian media coverage to Bulgarian interests in addition to the Bulgarian private media interests behind some of the coverage of crisis in Ukraine and Russia’s role in it.
Bulgaria’s Security Council and the Council of Ministers have approved the ‘Outlook 2020: Bulgaria and NATO in European Defence’ paper, which is also a subject of public consultation. The paper also assesses the existing security situation in Bulgaria and argues that investment in the country’s defence sector should reach 2pc, a percentage reached by Poland only among the CEE NATO members. These issues will be also discussed at the NATO Summit in the UK leading towards a formulation of Bulgaria’s new European Defence programme as a NATO member.
Back in the UK, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which is the consultative inter-parliamentary body for NATO, is this week taking an active part in the forthcoming NATO summit. It provides a link between NATO and the parliaments of its member nations. Crucially, it helps maintain and strengthen the transatlantic relationship, which underpins the Atlantic Alliance. In the UK, Hugh Bayley, the Labour Party’s MP for York Central, serves as President of NATO’s PA.
Voters choice: not left or right, but forward
Meanwhile, last week Labour politicians have done well in the forthcoming debate leading up to the Scottish Independence referendum on 18 September, although twists in the media interpretation of the televised high-profile debate on the subject pointed in different direction.
Namely, in the debate between Alex Salmon, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) for the ‘Yes’ campaign and Alisdair Darling, a former Labour Chancellor of the Exchequer, for the ‘No’ campaign, the winning arguments were presented by the latter.
For EU nationals in the UK, Scottish Independence may mean greater uncertainty on jobs and opportunities and certainly bugger long-term uncertainty for the Scottish economy and identity, as noticed by the top 130 Scottish businesses, who signed last week a ‘No’ to independence petition in the Scotsman newspaper.
The lessons seem to be is that if you are an UK, Scottish or a Bulgarian voter, the choice is not any more between left and right, but for the parties or the politicians who are capable of looking ‘forward’. Politicians have not yet thought of a party that does exactly that, but if some of the individual party policies or individual politicians do, they might be the best to vote for.
The biggest evidence of this is that the Bulgarian and UK’s designated EU Commissioners both have not yet got portfolios in the next European Commission. In the case of Kristalina Georgieva, Bulgaria’s EU Commissioner, running until last Saturday for the post of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, she did not get the post. This is because Bulgaria lobbied for her too late and among other reasons, Sergey Stanishev, the Leader of the European Socialists (PES) in the European Parliament, notably voted for her key rival.
Consequently, Italy’s Federica Mogherini, is the new EU foreign policy chief. She is a former Italian foreign minister with only six months on her previous job, a representative of the Italian left, known to be pro-Russian. She is facing the mammoth task of deal with Europe’s biggest political and defence crisis since the peak of the Cold War in the 1950s.
Donald Tusk’s election as a President of the European Council could be only a good news for EU, as he could balance East-West interests and sentiments within the EU, while representing a powerful alternative to Mogherini’s party political views.
Mogherini’s biggest challenge: Whose is Crimea?
The sign ‘Crimea is ours’ written in Russian (pictured) in a local London garden is unsigned. One could argue that it is likely written by a Russian, as Crimea still belongs legitimately to Ukraine, so a Ukrainian child is less likely to state the obvious in downtown London. In either case, Londoners outside politics or the media are notably being pushed to think beyond buying new school shoes.
Yet, Mogherini has said on her first day on the job that ‘Russia is not any more EU’s strategic partner’, a good start towards proving her capacity to take on the new role.
Kristalina Georgieva’s much spoken about new EC post has overnight become a Vice -President of the EC with a responsibility for the EU’s Budget, although the infrastructure portfolio has also been considered.
Whatever senior role she takes, she would be in a good position to represent Bulgaria, as well as work with the UK’s new EU Commissioner Jonathan Hill. A Conservative MP, chosen for the post as a good ‘fixer’, according to Open Europe think-tank, he will need to work as David Cameron’s man on key EU policies that divide his party, such as rules on access to benefits for EU migrants and trade policy liberalisation.
Copyright ©Rumyana Vakarelska
‘Budilnik’ s newspaper new English Language Page contains original journalistic content in print and online on key developments in Bulgaria and Britain and on UK’s ex-pat life, aiming to build a higher and well-informed mutual awareness of the two countries and the viable prospects ahead of both. It will include exclusive articles, interviews and pictures about business, investment, work life, politics, culture and identity, which are of specific interest to the Bulgarian community in the UK and across the world, also known as ‘Drugata Bulgaria’, the Other Bulgaria. Interested sponsors for the English language page, please contact Rumyana Vakarelska, Team New Europe, an editorial and public affairs consultancy in London by email: rumy.vakarelska@gmail.com
